Jane's Intelligence Review - Scenario Modelling

Scenario Modelling

*Withdrawal symptoms - What will happen after the US leaves Iraq?
A major explosion in Baghdad on 19 August that killed 95 people and injured 563 raised questions about the ability of Iraq's security forces to...
17-Sep-2009

*Crisis centre - Scenarios for Honduras' political stalemate
In the early hours of 28 June, Honduran troops stormed the residence of President Manuel Zelaya and, after a brief stand-off, detained the president and...
14-Aug-2009

*Sticking power - Post-election prospects in Afghanistan
Afghan President Hamed Karzai flew to the restive southern province of Kandahar on 13 July as part of his first major campaign tour ahead of...
16-Jul-2009

*Ploughshare politics - The future of Hizbullah's militia
Hizbullah's performance in Lebanon's parliamentary elections on 7 June showed it will remain a major actor within the country's political scene. Although the March ...
18-Jun-2009

*Transit authority - Guinea's dubious road to democracy
The Guinean coup d'état of 23 December 2008 was the most predicted in recent African history. In the 50 years since its independence, Guinea had...
11-May-2009

*Bearing gifts - The future of Cypriot negotiations
The long-running frozen conflict on Cyprus is showing signs of thawing, as the governments of both sides of the divided island move towards discussing a...
16-Apr-2009

*Good Correa move - Ecuador prepares for fourfold elections
Ecuador will hold elections on 26 April, not just for the presidency and the legislature but also for provincial and municipal governments. Having overhauled the...
09-Mar-2009

*A new hope? - Former rebel takes over as Somali president
The selection of a new Somali president on 31 January presages a fresh bout in the country's protracted efforts to restore some measure of political ...
12-Feb-2009

*Semi-detached - Kosovo's independence hangs in the balance
On 26 November, the UN Security Council approved a 12 June report from Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, in which he outlined six points as a ...
23-Dec-2008

*Republic enemy - US policy and Iranian elections
One of the key foreign policy challenges facing president-elect Barack Obama when he takes office on 20 January will be the issue of Iran. With...
13-Nov-2008

*Stoking the fire - Anger flares at Yemeni government
In the last year, there has been a dramatic increase in the level of insurgent activity in Yemen. On 17 September, the United States embassy...
16-Oct-2008

*All change - Egypt's future leaders wait in the wings
The problem of how to replace a long-standing dominant leader is one that has faced numerous political systems, not least China after Mao, The Soviet...
18-Sep-2008

*Close shave - Turkey's AKP faces policy dilemma
In early 2007, Turkey's Constitutional Court and the country's still powerful military combined to prevent the ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi:...
14-Aug-2008

*Breaching the peace - Will the Hamas-Israel ceasefire hold?
Ceasefires in Gaza have historically been characterised as brief periods of comparative calm before renewed outbreaks of hostilities. However, the announcement on 19 June of ...
18-Jul-2008

*Recouping losses - Fiji's regime considers its future
In December 2006, Republic of Fiji Military Force (RFMF) head Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama, also known as Frank, staged the island state's fifth coup since its ...
12-Jun-2008

*A thaw point - Frozen Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict warms up
An outbreak of violence in the South Caucasus in March 2008 has raised the prospect of renewed friction surrounding the frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, the ...
13-May-2008

*Morales dilemma - Bolivia's turbulent existential angst
With Bolivia's 18-month process of constitutional reform finally drawing to a close, bitter debate over the new constitution is raising the prospect of renewed social ...
03-Apr-2008

*Uncivil war? - Sudan peace rests on a knife edge
More than three years after the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed to end Sudan's 21-year civil war, the historic deal is beginning to unravel. ...
13-Mar-2008

*FARC's future - The road ahead for Colombia's rebels
Since Cuban President Fidel Castro underwent major surgery and handed power to his brother Raúl in July 2006, there has been intense international speculation about ...
12-Feb-2008

*Balkan break-up? - A crucial juncture for Bosnia-Herzegovina
After much delay, 2008 will be the year that Kosovo almost certainly becomes independent from Serbia and is recognised by the United States and most ...
17-Jan-2008

*Static charge - Stalled progress sparks tensions in Nepal
It has been more than a year since the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) and Maoist then-guerrillas signed a landmark Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) aiming to ...
19-Dec-2007

*Fork in the road - The crucial vote in Iraq's Kurd region
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) currently rules only three of Iraq's 18 governorates. These three are, not coincidentally, the only three in which Iraqi citizens ...
13-Nov-2007

*Scenarios - Lebanon's presidential elections
A mood of conciliation appears to be reigning over the process of the Lebanese presidential elections. The country's rival political factions are inching forward in ...
18-Oct-2007

*Scenarios - North Korea's stability paradox
The current six-party negotiation process for the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula is infused with optimism. The closure of five nuclear sites in July and ...
20-Sep-2007

*Scenarios - How will Georgia handle South Ossetia?
Since its November 2003 'Rose Revolution', Georgia has witnessed a remarkable improvement in almost all aspects of its stability. Thanks to massive inputs of foreign ...
15-Aug-2007

*Scenarios - Possible futures for Pakistan's president
The latest images of Pakistan's largely peaceful capital, Islamabad, shuddering under heavy gunfire and explosions and being engulfed by thick plumes of smoke, have ...
19-Jul-2007

*Scenarios - Will the Turkish military oppose the government to defend Atatürk's legacy?
A rise in tensions in 2007 had long been expected between Turkey's moderate Islamist government and secularist establishment. With both presidential and parliamentary elections ...
15-Jun-2007

*Scenarios - Options for a post-Castro Cuba
Reports predicting Fidel Castro's death have been greatly exaggerated. Having been the dominant figure in Cuban political life for 47 years, Castro temporarily stepped ...
16-May-2007

*Pre-vote jitters - Unease during run-up to Thai elections
In May 1992, several weeks of protests in Bangkok against the appointment of the leader of a military junta as prime minister culminated in a ...
20-Apr-2007

*Scenarios - Nigerian elections an important step for reform
It would be wrong to describe this year's elections in Nigeria as make or break for the country's future. Until Olusegun Obasanjo came to ...
07-Mar-2007

*Scenarios - Will 2007 see a verdict on Kosovo's future?
Eight years after NATO forces ejected Slobodan Milosevic's Serbian regime from Kosovo, 2007 seems likely to be the year when the province will receive ...
15-Feb-2007

*Scenarios - Israel and the future of Olmert's government
At the ceremony to commemorate the 11th anniversary of the assassination of former prime minister Yitzhak Rabin on 4 November 2006, the renowned Israeli ...
22-Jan-2007

*Scenarios - The future of central government in Iraq
This article was first available online on jir.janes.com on 8 January 2007. The execution of Saddam Hussein at the end of 2006 may have...
08-Jan-2007

*Scenarios - How oil prices will shape Venezuela's future
President Hugo Chávez, the dominant political personality on the Venezuelan stage for almost a decade, will face a decisive test in early December, when...
14-Nov-2006

*Scenarios - The future of Côte d'Ivoire
Côte d'Ivoire is at a political crossroads. Long the richest and most stable country in West Africa, it has verged on civil war and ...
25-Sep-2006

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