Jane's Intelligence Review - State Stability

State Stability

*Revolutionary road - Maoists decide on Nepalese peace process
It is now a cliché to remark that Nepal is undergoing multiple transitions - from war to peace, from a monarchy to a republic and...
15-Oct-2009

*Collision course - Yemen's converging crises
Yemen has always been on the verge of crisis. Throughout its history the country has never known complete stability, and governance has always bordered on...
17-Sep-2009

*Neighbourhood watch - The Afghan Public Protection Force
As discussion continues over the need to increase the numbers within Afghanistan's army and police, a new form of ground-level security force is being trialled...
14-Aug-2009

*Rising son - North Korea's political succession
The question of who will succeed North Korean leader Kim Jong-il appears to have been answered. South Korea's National Intelligence Service reportedly told a group...
14-Jul-2009

*Third time unlucky? - Nigerien president risks stability for longevity
After almost a decade of relative stability, the Republic of Niger is confronting a major political crisis that is likely to have severe economic and...
16-Jun-2009

*Rewind to 1969 - Racial politics revive tension in Malaysia
The date 13 May has resonated throughout Malaysia for 40 years. On that day in 1969, rioting and clashes between the demographically and politically dominant...
30-Apr-2009

*Executive disorder - Military imposes new leader on Madagascar
A month can be a very short time in politics. When Andry Rajoelina, mayor of Madagascar's capital Antananarivo, was removed from office on 3 February,...
21-Apr-2009

*A better deal? - Iraq elections reshuffle political deck
As the results of the 31 January Iraqi provincial elections have slowly become apparent, the shifting balance of power in local governance is clear. ...
06-Mar-2009

*New order - Changing the guard in Kosovo
Kosovo's first year of independence has been characterised by efforts to reconcile the country's new self-declared status and establish a way of living with its...
26-Feb-2009

*Underlying force - Religion underpins Bangladesh's politics
"Save the country and Islam by voting for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party [BNP] and its alliance," urged Khaleda Zia, the party's chairwoman and the country's...
12-Feb-2009

*New deal - Zimbabwe's politicians reach agreement
Five months after the signing of a power-sharing agreement in Zimbabwe, a combination of international pressure and economic deterioration has facilitated its implementation. With the...
12-Feb-2009

*Existential angst - Tension mounts in Bosnia-Herzegovina
Thirteen years after the end of the civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), the country is still struggling to make progress. Its dysfunctional internal politics and...
02-Jan-2009

*Uncivil partnerships - Guinea-Bissau elections may bring instability
In legislative elections held on 16 November, Guinea-Bissau appeared to have turned a corner. Provisional results announced on 21 November gave one party the most...
02-Jan-2009

*Shrewd awakening - US aid for Sunni militias improves Iraqi security
When the United States Department of Defense issued its report on Iraq to Congress in June 2008, the Pentagon identified the emergence of the 'Sons...
17-Dec-2008

*Gaza stripped - Israeli blockade leaves Gaza vulnerable
Gazans have a stubborn habit of being able to cope. Over the past 18 months of blockades, and despite a poverty rate that hovers at...
11-Dec-2008

*Changing the guard - Efforts continue to resurrect Afghan police force
While the Afghan National Army has grown in size, professionalism and ability in recent years, allowing it to take a lead role in a number...
16-Oct-2008

*Developing disorder - Divergent PRT models in Afghanistan
The latest Afghan donor conference, held in Paris in June 2008, ostensibly provided the South Asian state with a much-needed financial fillip. However, although development...
19-Sep-2008

*A bitter battle - Hysteria and revenge in Malaysian politics
Despite being ruled by a single coalition since independence in 1957, politics in Malaysia rarely lacks intrigue. The current political situation is a case in ...
12-Aug-2008

*On thin ice - Chechen stability hinges on president
The fighting that has blighted the Russian Republic of Chechnya since the onset of the First Chechen War in 1994 has diminished significantly in recent ...
17-Jul-2008

*Mass mobilisation - The rise of Iran's paramilitary enforcer
Alarge, omnipresent paramilitary organisation with multi-faceted roles, the Basij is the eyes and ears of Iran's Islamic regime. Under the tutelage of the Islamic Revolutionary ...
12-Jun-2008

*The FNL countdown - Burundi's last insurgents agree ceasefire
After 15 years of civil war in the central African country of Burundi, a ceasefire has been reached between the government and the country's last ...
11-Jun-2008

*Acrimonious Aceh - Peace eludes Indonesia's restive province
Almost three years since the signing of the groundbreaking August 2005 Helsinki peace deal between the former rebel Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka: GAM) ...
06-Jun-2008

*Hidden passages - Illusory reform belies constitutional change
In an echo of last year's monk-led protests, Myanmar's forthcoming constitutional referendum has once again raised false hopes of political reform. Although the constitution nominally...
02-May-2008

*Politics as usual - Assessing Iran's parliamentary election results
On 14 March, Iranians went to the polls to vote for a new parliament, the eighth Majlis. Although most of the reformist candidates were disqualified...
17-Apr-2008

*Leaders in waiting - Zimbabwe prepares for post-election tussle
Despite the certainty of the result, Zimbabwe's March 2008 elections are historic. For the first time since democracy was introduced in 1980, presidential, senatorial, parliamentary...
13-Mar-2008

*Coming together - Bhutan's long and winding road to democracy
Bhutan completes its journey to democracy on 24 March when it holds its first ever national lower house (National Assembly) legislative elections. The polls ...
03-Mar-2008

*Calculated risk - Analysing global stability
This month, Jane's is launching the new Country Risk Ratings, evaluating the stability of 232 countries, non-contiguous territories and de facto independent political entities. These ...
15-Feb-2008

*Any port in a storm - Securing peace in Haiti
When international humanitarian organisation Medecins sans Frontières (MSF) announced plans in December 2007 to withdraw from Cité Soleil, one of the most violent districts of ...
04-Feb-2008

*Taking the reins - Turkmenistan's post-Niyazov development
In the year following the sudden death of then-Turkmen president Saparmurad Niyazov in December 2006, his successor Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has successfully established himself as the...
17-Jan-2008

Tribal turmoil - Kenyan election exposes ethnic fissures
Kenya's general election on 27 December has brought into question the viability and sustainability of one of Africa's leading democracies. Despite largely peaceful conduct of...
17-Jan-2008

*Divide and rule - Georgia's political frenzy
In November, Georgia faced its greatest political crisis since the overthrow of President Eduard Shevardnadze by Mikheil Saakashvili's National Movement in 2003. President Saakashvili overreacted...
18-Dec-2007

*General emergency - President Musharraf's tenuous grip on power
In 1999, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff General Pervez Musharraf cited the protection of the judiciary as one justification for his military coup that ousted...
15-Nov-2007

*Tug of war - Territorial shifts in northern Somalia
Given the volume of news coming from southern Somalia, it is relatively easy to neglect the fighting in the north over the city of Laascaanood...
15-Nov-2007

Breaking point - The fragile Union of Comoros
During the three decades since independence from France, Comoros has become a byword for instability, progressing from Maoist revolution to mercenary rule to secessionist crisis...
18-Sep-2007

Political takeover - Organised crime undermines Guatemala's elections
Only 11 years after the formal conclusion of its 36-year civil war, Guatemala remains one of Latin America's most violent and unstable countries. Corruption is...
14-Aug-2007

intelligence review